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Multi-timeframe trend

Argonaut Trend

Inspired by Tiphys, navigator of the Argo. Sails with the trend; respects when it shifts.

Stage: Canary →

Subscribed by users on Pro, Plus, Power, and Performance (QC).

Subscribe via paper mode →Read latest Calibration Report →

The thesis

What this swarm tries to capture

Trends in crypto persist longer than median participants expect. Three structural forces extend them:

  1. 01

    Liquidity in crypto markets is fragmented; new participants arrive in waves, prolonging directional moves.

  2. 02

    Institutional allocations now occur in discrete tranches — ETF inflows, treasury announcements — extending trend durations by weeks or months.

  3. 03

    Behavioral biases (anchoring, herding) cause retail to enter trends late, providing the momentum-continuation premium.

Argonaut Trend is built to capture this premium across multiple timeframes — 4-hour, daily, weekly — while respecting when trends shift. There is no permanent commitment to a direction.

The mythological anchor

Tiphys was the helmsman of the Argo. He set course by reading the wind and the stars — committed to direction but responsive to change. He died mid-voyage; the Argo continued under Ankaios. Trend honors that pattern: clear direction, succession when needed.

The architecture

Agent roles, intelligence, limits

Macro ScoutPosition SizerVETORisk Managerveto authority

Agent roles

  • Macro Scout

    Multi-timeframe trend identification across 4h, daily, and weekly horizons.

  • Position Sizer

    Kelly-fractional sizing with drawdown-aware decay.

  • Risk Manager

    Veto authority

    Enforces position limits, slippage caps, and a daily loss bound.

Intelligence backbone

Trend queries STAXIS’s market-intelligence layer for regime detection (trending vs ranging environment) and macro context — rate environment, ETF flow, stablecoin supply changes.

Assets

BTC, ETH, SOL spot trading. Long-only in Phase 1. Phase 2 may include defensive positioning (cash tranches) but not short positioning.

Breaker parameters

The standard 2.5% / 3% daily breaker applies, plus a per-position drawdown limit (10% trailing).

IMPORTANT: This is a technical risk control, NOT a guarantee of maximum loss.

Governance status

Current stage: Canary

PaperCanaryLiveDegradedRetired

What “canary” means

The swarm is running on real capital — small real capital, in our own funds and in early qualified-client allocations. We monitor predicted-vs-realized closely. The breaker is active. The audit log is permanent.

Promotion to LIVE stage requires

  • 90 days minimum in canary.
  • Brier score within acceptable range (per governance documentation).
  • Realized drawdown within breaker bounds.
  • No correlated-failure events.
Read Calibration Report — Argonaut Trend →

How to subscribe

Paper mode is free. Real capital is non-custodial.

Subscribed by users on Pro, Plus, Power, and Performance (QC).

  • Paper mode

    Free

    Subscribe with no real capital. See decisions and outcomes in your dashboard.

  • Pro

    $29 / mo

    Subscribe to one swarm with real capital — your wallet or exchange. Includes weekly digest and Calibration Report public summary.

  • Plus

    $79 / mo

    Subscribe to up to three swarms simultaneously. Includes full Calibration Report access.

  • Power

    $199 / mo

    Subscribe to all available swarms. First-access to new swarms in canary stage. Founder office-hours access.

  • Performance

    Qualified clients

    0% management + 20% performance fee with high-water mark. For US qualified clients per Advisers Act Rule 205-3 ($2.7M+ net worth) or equivalent international profile.

The Performance tier’s 0% management + 20% performance fee with high-water mark is available only to US qualified clients per Advisers Act Rule 205-3 ($2.7M+ net worth) or an equivalent international profile. IMPORTANT: This is a technical risk control, NOT a guarantee of maximum loss.

Start paper mode →See full pricing →