Argonaut Events

Inspired by Lynceus, whose vision pierced any veil. Sees what others miss in the chains and in the discourse.

Stage: Paper →

Subscribed by users on Plus, Power, and Performance.

Subscribe via paper mode →Read latest Calibration Report →

The thesis

What this swarm tries to capture

Crypto markets respond to two non-price signals with regular asymmetry — sentiment shifts and on-chain whale flow.

01
Sentiment shifts
Across 12–72 hour leads, funding-rate volatility on perp futures plus Twitter/Reddit sentiment changes correlate with directional moves at predictable lags.
02
On-chain whale flow
Large wallet movements (over $10M aggregate 24-hour activity) cluster around significant price actions. Whales tend to act before retail recognizes the regime.

Argonaut Events blends sentiment signals with on-chain flow data to detect early-stage regime shifts, then sizes positions conservatively — reflecting the uncertainty inherent in event-driven approaches.

The mythological anchor

Lynceus’s vision could pierce walls and clouds. Events inherits the pattern: see through noise to the underlying flow.

This swarm is currently in PAPER mode. We are not deploying real capital here yet. Promotion to canary will be transparent in the monthly Calibration Reports.

The architecture

Agent roles, intelligence, limits

Agent roles

Signal Reader
Fuses sentiment-shift signals (funding-rate volatility, Twitter/Reddit) with on-chain whale-flow data to flag early regime shifts.
Conviction Sizer
Sizes positions conservatively, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in event-driven approaches.
Risk Manager
Veto authority
Enforces position limits, slippage caps, and the daily loss bound.

Intelligence backbone

Events draws on STAXIS’s market-intelligence layer and event pipeline — Twitter/Reddit sentiment, perp funding-rate volatility, and on-chain wallet-flow providers — to read the deeper signal beneath price.

Assets

BTC, ETH, SOL spot trading. Event-driven, conservatively sized. Paper mode only until governance promotes the swarm to canary.

Breaker parameters

The standard 2.5% / 3% daily breaker applies, alongside conservative per-event position caps.

IMPORTANT: This is a technical risk control, NOT a guarantee of maximum loss.

Governance status

Current stage: Paper

What “paper” means

The swarm runs on no real capital. Every decision and outcome is recorded against the permanent audit log so predicted-vs-realized can be measured before any allocation. The breaker logic is active in simulation.

Promotion to LIVE stage requires

90 days minimum in canary once promoted from paper.
Brier score within acceptable range (per governance documentation).
Realized drawdown within breaker bounds.
No correlated-failure events.

Read Calibration Report — Argonaut Events →

How to subscribe

Paper mode is free. Real capital is non-custodial.

Subscribed by users on Plus, Power, and Performance.

Paper mode
Free
The only way to follow Events today. Subscribe with no real capital and watch decisions and outcomes in your dashboard.
Plus
$79 / mo
Reserves Events in your slot of up to three swarms when it promotes to canary. Includes full Calibration Report access.
Power
$199 / mo
Subscribe to all available swarms. First-access to new swarms in canary stage. Founder office-hours access.
Performance
Qualified clients
0% management + 20% performance fee with high-water mark. For US qualified clients per Advisers Act Rule 205-3 ($2.7M+ net worth) or equivalent international profile.

The Performance tier’s 0% management + 20% performance fee with high-water mark is available only to US qualified clients per Advisers Act Rule 205-3 ($2.7M+ net worth) or an equivalent international profile. IMPORTANT: This is a technical risk control, NOT a guarantee of maximum loss.

Start paper mode →See full pricing →